Taking a punt

A few years back, I became a bit concerned by the interest my then 21 year-old son and his mates had in horse races.

As a family, we often had shares in a horse and enjoyed some fun times at local and Melbourne races. 

But I always felt it was an occasional day out, not a serious interest; and something you were happy to spend some money on, not a way to try to make money.

The impact of seductive betting apps was getting some attention, so it seemed like it was time to have that fatherly chat. Yep, they always go well.

After the expected eye roll and ‘here we go again’ sigh, I was surprised to receive a detailed explanation of the way the lads went about their punting.

They didn’t just back their favourite colour or a name they liked. They researched. They looked at breeding lines. They looked at the skills of the trainer and the jockey. They looked at track conditions and past and expected weather. They adjusted the size and nature of their bet depending on their confidence level.

As the conversation unfolded it began to have a familiar feel. This is not much different to what I’d been doing for 40 years – farming.

Around this time each year, farmers are reviewing trial data and selecting the best genetics.

They’re considering stored soil moisture alongside seasonal forecasts. 

They’re ensuring they have the equipment and human resources to get the job done on time. 

They weigh up all these factors to tailor a rotation they believe gives them the best chance of success. 

Come April, they place their bets.

To further test the theory farming is just another legal form of betting, we set up two spreadsheets. 

One was to record the performance of a lentil paddock, named Hurricane, over the full growing season – inputs, outputs, profit or loss. 

The other was to record betting activity from the March autumn carnival to the end of Melbourne Cup week – wins, losses, net outcome.

It was a fun exercise. That year Hurricane won.

But I have an uneasy feeling the odds for Hurricane, and others in the same stable, are lengthening. 

Even with the good barrier draw and favourable track of the past few seasons, the winning margin is tightening. 

And, as can happen with addicted gamblers, we increase the size of the bet every year.

I’m not saying there’s cause for alarm, but I do feel, more than ever before, we need to be disciplined in the way we bet. Disciplined in our purchase of machinery. Disciplined in what we are prepared to pay for farmland. Disciplined in our execution of a cropping program.

In a modern farm business, the bets must be based on solid research, not emotion.